Today is Oscar Sunday, my Super Bowl. I am spending all day in front of the TV, absorbing the ridiculous ‘pre-game’ coverage until show time.   

 

Here are my official predictions for some of the major categories; those who will win, those who deserve to win, those who were snubbed and a few potential spoilers.

 

ACTOR – LEADING

Will win: Philip Seymour Hoffman

Should win: Heath Ledger

Should have been nominated: Jeff Daniels (The Squid and the Whale), Viggo Mortensen (A History of Violence)

 

ACTOR – SUPPORTING (the toughest category by far)

Will win: Paul Giamatti

Should win: George Clooney

Spoiler: Matt Dillon

 

ACTRESS – LEADING

Will win: Reese Witherspoon

Should win: Felicity Huffman

Should have been nominated: Maria Bello (A History of Violence), Laura Linney (The Squid and the Whale)

 

ACTRESS – SUPPORTING

Will win: Rachel Weisz

Should win: Michelle Williams

Spoiler: Amy Adams

 

ANIMATED FEATURE

Will win: Wallace & Gromit in the Curse of the Were-Rabbit

Should win: Tim Burton’s Corpse Bride

 

ART DIRECTION

Will win: Memoirs of a Geisha

Should win: Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire

 

BEST PICTURE

Will win: Brokeback Mountain

Should win: Brokeback Mountain

Spoiler: Crash

 

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Will win: Brokeback Mountain

Should win: Brokeback Mountain

Spoiler: Good Night, and Good Luck

 

DIRECTING

Will win: Brokeback Mountain (Ang Lee)

Should win: Brokeback Mountain (Ang Lee)

Spoilers: Munich (Spielberg), Good Night, and Good Luck (Clooney)

Should have been nominated: David Cronenberg (A History of Violence)
 

FILM EDITING

Will win: Crash

Should win: Walk the Line

 

MAKEUP

Will win: Star Wars: Episode III

Should win: Star Wars: Episode III

 

ORIGINAL SCORE

Will win: Brokeback Mountain

Should win: Brokeback Mountain

 

ORIGINAL SONG

Will win: Travelin’ Thru (Transamerica)

Should win: Travelin’ Thru (Transamerica)

 

SCREENPLAY – ADAPTED

Will win: Brokeback Mountain

Should win: Brokeback Mountain

Spoiler: Capote

 

SCREENPLAY – ORIGINAL

Will win: Crash

Should win: The Squid and the Whale

Spoiler: Match Point

 

SOUND MIXING

Will win: King Kong

Should win: Walk the Line

 

VISUAL EFFECTS

Will win: King Kong

Should win: War of the World

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I am not conservative. But in my opinion, the marketplace for frat boy humor in the movies has become oversaturated. Yes, Old School is funny, as are Anchorman and Dodgeball. But Wedding Crashers is too long and much less entertaining, and the few laugh-out-loud moments were all on the trailer.

 

By the way, is there an unwritten rule that Will Ferrell, Ben Stiller, Vince Vaughn, and Owen and/or Luke Wilson must all cameo in each other’s films?

 

Will Vaughn’s supposed relationship with Jennifer Aniston affect his box office success? We’ll see when the aptly named The Breakup comes out later this year. To me, Vaughn is a better actor when he is given the opportunity to shine in scenery-stealing moments without his boy posse (Mr. & Mrs. Smith, Be Cool). He is a pretty decent dramatic actor as well; early in his career, he had some quality performances in movies like Clay Pigeons and Return to Paradise. That being said, I found Vaughn to be distracting and seemingly out of place in last year’s Thumbsucker. Is he trying to reestablish the ‘indie cred’ that put him on the map when he starred in 1996’s Swingers?

 

Meet the Parents and Meet the Fockers may have paid his bills for life, but when it comes to Ben Stiller, I recommend Keeping the Faith, an undervalued comedy co-starring and directed by an unusually funny Edward Norton. Stiller made six movies in 2004, one too many for the viewing public to ingest – Envy was the only film among the six that did not connect with audiences that year, resulting in one of Stiller’s few big screen financial failures (Duplex bombed badly in 2003).

 

I’m not sure what the appeal is with Owen Wilson. He alternates action movies with comedies and independent films, and has the most diversified canon of work among his frat boy counterparts. But that’s about all I can say for the guy. His brother Luke, on the other hand, has achieved more mainstream success with the Legally Blonde and Charlie’s Angels franchises, and he was great in both Rushmore and The Royal Tenenbaums. 

 

And then there is Will Ferrell, probably the most popular kid in this clubhouse. He has tried his hand at a thinly veiled Woody Allen impersonation (Melinda and Melinda) and a man-child from the North Pole (Elf), but Ferrell may forever be known as Frank the Tank from Old School. He will probably stay golden with two of his next efforts: Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby, a NASCAR comedy helmed by Anchorman director Adam McKay, and Blades of Glory, an Olympic ice skating satire co-starring Will Arnett (Arrested

Development) that is currently in production.

 

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Meg Ryan’s monster success as the Queen of Feel-Good Date Movies is long gone. Outside of Julia Roberts, there are no clear successors to Ryan’s romantic comedy reign, but Kate Hudson (How To Lose a Guy in 10 Days, Raising Helen) is doing her best. Drew Barrymore is charming but inconsistent (Never Been Kissed, Fever Pitch). I love Diane Lane, but Must Love Dogs felt a tad stale (John Cusack was much better in Serendipity but should stick to films like High Fidelity). And from now on, it would be great if both Amanda Peet and Cameron Diaz would avoid this genre altogether. So when it comes to contemporary romantic comedies, I’ll stick with movies like Love Actually or Hitch.

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I try not to believe the pre-release buzz about movies, but there are some I can’t wait to see based on the trailers alone. Right now I’m looking forward to Thank You For Smoking, a satire starring Aaron Eckhart (Nurse Betty, Erin Brockovich) as a spokesman for Big Tobacco. It was adapted and helmed by first time director Jason Reitman (dad Ivan directed movies like Stripes, Ghost Busters and Dave, so the penchant for comedy is genetic), and this one looks like a winner. The film is based on Christopher Buckley’s novel of the same name and features an all-star cast, including Maria Bello, Adam Brody (The OC ), Katie Holmes, Robert Duvall, Rob Lowe and William H. Macy. You can follow Reitman’s journey as he promotes the film, and see for yourself his explanation about the infamous lost footage of Katie Holmes: http://thankyouforsmoking.typepad.com.

 

One of the most talked about movies from Sundance this year is the dark comedy Little Miss Sunshine, starring Steve Carrell, Greg Kinner and Toni Collette. There isn’t a trailer online yet, but it is slated to come out in July.

Out of sheer curiosity, I will see V For Vendetta when it finally comes out next month. Anything produced by the famously private Wachowski Brothers intrigues me, and, bald or not, I heart Natalie Portman ever since she stole my heart in Garden State.

 

I do have to admit that I will see Mission: Impossible III when it opens. Though not a huge fan of the couch-jumping superstar, I am drawn to this particular trilogy and admit to owning many of his movies (Jerry Maguire, The Last Samurai, Magnolia, Minority Report, The Outsiders and Top Gun). Besides, it was directed by television genius JJ Abrams, who brought three of my all-time favorite shows to life: Felicity, Alias and Lost. In addition, it will be great to see Keri Russell back in action (no matter the hair length) and Philip Seymour Hoffman as the villain. And of course, no JJ Abrams production would be complete without a Greg Grunberg appearance! Hopefully he won’t be eaten alive by a monster after two minutes onscreen in this one…

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What is it about Bill Murray that inspires filmmakers to make sluggish arty movies revolving around his close ups and facial expressions? Last night I rented Broken Flowers. I believe I’ve seen this movie before – it was called Lost in Translation. Don’t get me wrong, I am a fan of independent film. But lately so many indies have been painstakingly slow, and a few appealing characters sprinkled within do not make up for two lackluster hours of my life at a snail’s pace. I never understood the Lost in Translation hype, regardless of my affinity for Murray or Scarlett Johansson. (Aside: I recently watched The Godfather Part III, which reminded me that Sophia Coppola made the right decision by not becoming an actress. As for directing – besides being aesthetically pleasing, both Lost in Translation and The Virgin Suicides did not impress me at all.) Bill Murray has played a variation on the same role for several years now, but at least Rushmore and The Royal Tenenbaums made me laugh and held my interest for the duration of the film. Be warned: Broken Flowers is a serious yawner, almost on par with The Life Aquatic.

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There is serious momentum behind Crash, especially now that it is a Best Picture contender. I am flummoxed by its popularity. Am I the only one who thinks it is overrated?! Fans of the film will argue that it ends realistically, that race relations continue to be unresolved and the discomfort is tangible. While I agree, in my opinion too many layers were rushed and force fed into two hours. Crash marked the big screen directorial debut of screenwriter Paul Haggis, who also wrote and received an Oscar nod for Million Dollar Baby. And to me, it seems obvious that a writer directed his own script for the first time.  

 

Sidenote: In the late 70’s, Haggis was a writer on One Day at a Time, The Love Boat, Diff’rent StrokesThe Facts of Life. He later and created Walker, Texas Ranger and wrote for primetime dramas such as thirtysomething and L.A. Law.

I continue to stand strongly behind Brokeback Mountain as the most deserving candidate for Best Picture of 2005, and one of the best of this decade thus far.

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